What this is. A one-to-one port of the "JB Updated FF Model V1" workbook — Model Score (VORP / game-environment / ADP / scarcity), the live-recalculated scores, Need Multiplier, Recommendation Score, survival probabilities, Reach Score and the Expected-Value-at-next-pick benchmark — verified against every number in the spreadsheet, then generalised so the roster (2QB, Superflex, FLEX eligibility), team count, slot, and every weight are settings instead of hard-coded pick-9 assumptions.

Marking picks. Live sync (ESPN via the extension, Sleeper anywhere) marks picks automatically. Otherwise: type in the search box and press Enter to mark the top match as taken by someone else, Shift+Enter for your own pick, or click the buttons on any row. "Paste picks" accepts any block of text containing player names (e.g. ESPN's pick history) and marks them in order.

Survival probabilities use the workbook's Normal(ADP, StdDev) model, but conditional on the player still being available at the current pick. The workbook's own caveat still applies: real position runs (esp. TE and, in 2QB leagues, QB) are tighter than a normal curve, so treat them as a starting estimate.

ADP matters most. The model's ADP component and every survival probability come from the loaded ADP set. The workbook ships 1-QB PPR ADP; for a 2QB/Superflex league fetch the 2QB set (ADP & injuries tab) before your draft. Projections are positional curves (points by positional rank, full-PPR calibrated) — paste real projections as overrides if you have them.

Any ESPN league. Get started reads your league through the ESPN sign-in already in this browser (no passwords are typed anywhere): roster slots, scoring, draft order, your team and slot, roster maximums, keeper settings. The pre-draft analysis then pulls the league's last three drafts and the FantasyFootballCalculator ADP that existed at the time, measures every manager (reach bias with confidence intervals, QB timing, position bias, K/DST habits), detects the keeper cost rule from the league's own history and ESPN's reserved keeper slots, prices every keeper on every roster, calibrates the survival odds, and prepares the Monte Carlo simulation in the Planning Room. Your keeper choice and the simulated plan carry over into the Draft Room's Game plan card.

Data stays local. Settings, picks, imported data and the analysis are saved in this browser only (per league).

Glossary

ADP · ADP spread

Average Draft Position across thousands of mock drafts in the loaded set, and its standard deviation. ADP feeds 20% of Model Score; the spread sets how uncertain survival odds are.

Projection (Proj) · Floor · Ceiling

Season points from the positional curve (points by positional rank, full-PPR calibrated) after any injury haircut. Floor/ceiling widen with ADP disagreement and injury risk.

Replacement level · VORP

The player at the replacement rank (teams × starters + flex/superflex share) is what a waiver-level starter looks like. VORP = projection − replacement level. 45% of Model Score.

Game environment

Team win total (Vegas) blended with strength of schedule, position-specific. 20% of Model Score.

Scarcity

Points lost over the next N players at his position (N = 6 in the workbook, or scaled by how fast the position is drafted). Steep = take him before the cliff. 15% of Model Score.

Model Score

Pre-draft 0–100 blend of the four components. Stable all draft — the reference number.

Live Model Score

Model Score with scarcity recomputed from who is actually still available. Moves with every pick.

Need Multiplier · Recommendation Score

×1.15 open starter, ×1.10 QB for your superflex, ×1.05 would fill FLEX, ×0.90 position filled. Rec Score = Live Score × multiplier; positions at their roster maximum are excluded.

P(next) · P(after)

Chance he's still there at your next pick / the one after, given he's available now (Normal curve on ADP). Green ≥65%, red <35%.

Reach Score · Take now or wait

Model Score × (1 − P(survive to the pick after your next)). High = draft now. WAIT-ABLE = likely still there later. EV benchmark = the average Model Score of what's typically left at that later pick.

Tier

Positional tiers from gaps in Model Score (new tier when the drop exceeds 4 points).

vs ADP (Slam / Strong / Take / Lean no / Pass)

Value gap = ADP rank − model rank, in standard deviations across the pool: the model likes him much more than the market (Slam, Strong), about the same (Take), or less (Lean no, Pass).

Roster maximum

League limit on how many players you may hold at a position (from ESPN). At the max, the position leaves your recommendations.